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after they leave the theaters. the fiscal cliff and jobs numbers and state of the economy. who better to talk about all of that than robert reich, former secretary of labor in the clinton administration and current economics professor at the university of california at berkeley. good to see you. thanks so much for joining us. >> how are you? >> let's talk about these numbers on friday, the surprisingly strong jobs numbers. 146,000 new jobs created. the unemployment rate dropping to 7.7%. we were expecting some impact from the super storm sandy in earlier thanksgiving. what do the numbers say about the economy? >> apparently we are still struggling. these are not hugely wonderful numbers but undoubtedly we're moving in the right direction. the early thanksgiving may have canceled out negative effects of sandy. sandy really did not have much of an effect in november. >> interesting -- do you think we'll see revisions next month? >> we probably will. every month we're seeing revisions and so far they have been downward. the revisions we saw friday for october and september, were both dow
be wise to look beyond the fiscal cliff because all the fears it's tomorrow doing the economy are misplaced. >> most economists have said if we go into 2013 without a deal we'll go into recession. >> we might have into 2013 for three days or knife days or a week before there's a deal. that's about it. the pressure from financial markets will be too great so the scenario that you just referred to to, we go over the cliff, had and the economy sinks. i want to emphasize that cannot happen. >> let me move on to another topic. timothy geithner has said he's not returning for another four years. your name has been mentioned as a replacement. >> of course they are not going to make any changes during that team during the pennedsy of all of this. the president has lots of good choices for whatever comes next. i very much doubt that i'll be part of that but they are in good shape and they don't have anything to do about this. do youly jack lew would be a good treasury secretary. fiscal issues will continue to be and the for foernt even after after agreement on the cliff and the preside
cliff? are you expecting the economy to go over the fiscal cliff and see these taxes go high hadder and spending cuts take effect? >> my personal view is i'm still optimistic. i think the conversation has been constructive since. do we have a solution on the table yet? no. but i'm optimistic we'll get to a framework. >> why? >> there's been enough dialogue. there's been movement. everyone seems to recognize the problem. everybody realizes there has to be a revenue component, spend component, entitlement reform component. for us, the business community and all the ceos, certainty is the greatest stimulus for us. >> do you support tax rates going higher? >> me personally, as an individual, more importantly the business community, which i'm part of. we support something inclusive. if rates were higher in a videocasset vacuum, i'm not sure we'd be supportive of that. we have to make sure the consumers, those who spends a lot of the dollars, the middle class, are protected in this exercise. >> i guess the question i'm really getting at is, do you get the revenue from tax increases or fro
the fiscal cliff, that the economy will see a contraction of a couple of percentage points. where are you on earnings for 2013, what are your expectations? >> maria, look at the s&p numbers, looking for a slow single digit percentage gains. for this period of the fourth quarter looking for gains in telecommunications and financials. i think the critical part, investors ought to be very keen just to weigh in the risk, you know, and the fact they had a very rewarding year in 2012, we were up about 12% on the s&p 500. earnings will be very much held captive by the fact that the uncertainty not only about the fiscal cliff but debt ceiling. >> very quickly, john, we're lose altitude in this market rapidly. what do you make of this, and what are you expecting to close here? >> just shows you how fragile our markets r.one comment out of washington can take profits off the table intraday. we'll hold on to our gains here. >> thanks, everybody. we appreciate it. where exactly do we stand in these fiscal cliff negotiations in the latest now from our john harwood, on your stomping ground. good to see
to understand given how much going over the fiscal cliff would hurt the economy. why is going over the fiscal cliff worth it for just this one component? if you can get the other components, why wouldn't you take that? >> good question. thanks for asking. what we're trying to do is put in place a comprehensive balance set of fiscal reforms that put us back on the path to living within our means and create room for investing to make the economy stronger, make sure we're protecting medicare for future generations, and forcing the government to use the taxpayers' resources more wisely. in that context, you have to have a significant amount of revenues. we don't see a way of doing it that makes any sense or has any political viability without rates going up as part of that deal. again, the size of the problem in some sense is so large it can't be solved without rates going up. i think there's a broad recognition of that reality now. if you listen carefully to the talk not just in this town, but you hear what businesses and investors say, i think there's broad recognition that rates are going to g
have had otherwise. just imagine that. the fiscal cliff is going cost the economy in that order of magnitude, 3 million jobs. we should not, not, not go over that cliff. now -- >> by the same token, though, his point about -- and i don't want to make this about ed. the fact remains that the debt levels we have in this country in effect put a cap on growth right now. >> sure, sure, sure. i think that economists have been saying for years -- i have said repeatedly, economists on both sides of the aisle have said repeatedly what we need is a long-term plan for deficit reduction that begins to take effect when the economy is closer to its capacity. right now it's at least 6% below its capacity. the unemployment rate, 7.7, it should be like 5.7 at capacity. we should not be doing a lot of deficit reduction right now. we want to sends a credible message to markets that we're serious about deficit reduction, but to put it in place in that brutal way, $600 billion next year, forget it. that's not good economics. >> there is a school of thought that says that we just have to get used to
chairman and cleveland cabs owner dan gilbert, the economy, investing and the fiscal cliff when "squawk box" returns. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. you know, one job or the other. the moment i could access the retirement plan, i just became firm about it -- "i'm done. i'm out of here." you know, it's like it just hits you fast. you know, you start thinking about what's really important here. ♪ ♪ the latest coffee machine from nespresso. modular. intuitive. combines espresso and fresh milk. the new u. nespresso. what else? available at these fine retailers. well, having a ton of locations doesn't hurt. and a santa to boot! [ chuckles ] right, baby. oh, sir. that is a customer. oh...sorry about that. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. fedex office. [ male announcer ] bre
in the fiscal cliff issue. everybody is obsessed what happens because we're the biggest economy and what we do will affect everybody. everybody including sovereign well funds want to know what has happened. >> what do you tell them? >> i tell them it's unlikely a deal won't be reached. i don't know whether it's december 23 or 24 or 28. very unlikely a deal won't be reached. >> what about post january 1st? >> we're talking about a deal nine months of this fiscal year, we have nine months left of it. we're talking a down payment and have the next nine months and talking about a down payment to make it go away in terms of fiscal cliff for january 1 and still have a lot next year. >> you're as close to wall street guy washington insider, that's what carlyle is, what have you seen behind the scenes or conversations that has made you this optimistic? >> i talked to people in congress and people involved in negotiations and my belief is they know a deal has to be done and each side wants to posture themselves not to give away the things they shouldn't give away. i'm pretty sure they know a deal has t
. the longer the white house slow walks this discussion, the closer our economy gets to the fiscal cliff, and the more american jobs are placed in jeopardy. >> good morning. the president has said on a daily basis that we should be passing a balanced plan. but what we hear from the president is continuing only discussion on one side of the ledger. it has always been about tax rate increases, and nothing about spending. and we insist, say, look, mr. president, let's talk about a balanced plan, but where are your specifics on the spending cuts? even his own advisers say that any kind of agreement that we come to has to deal with the prime drivers of our deficit, which is the spending, particularly the health care entitlement programs. so we ask the president to please sit down with us and be specific and let's get that balanced plan. you know, it's interesting that the senate has passed a bill that is a bill calling for increased revenues of $850 billion. the president continues to say, support that bill, pass that bill. well, how is that the case when he continues to say we also need $1.4
on entrepreneurs. it is the secret sauce that's built the american economy. >> what about the fiscal cliff? you brought it up. do you think they will take us over the cliff at this point and how damaging if that happens would it be not only to entrepreneurship but to the country as a whole? >> i think it will be troubling. hopefully they won't. i know there is a lot of posturing and hopefully a lot of quiet negotiations happening and hopefully there will be a resolution that can build pore. it is important not just for the fiscal cliff. i think the country and actually the world is looking at washington saying can these guys work together in a collaborative bipartisan way to deal with fiscal issues, our entrepreneurship issues, we have to start building that bipartisan support. congress did come together, republicans and democrats, house and senate with support of the white house to pass the jobs act around access to capital for entrepreneurs so we have some example of that. hopefully that momentum will continue not just on the fiscal cliff in the coming weeks but issues like the start-up act 2
, the economy and the looming fiscal cliff. jpmorgan chairman ceo jamie dimon. carlyle group cofounder david rubenstein and a lot more. and it all starts tomorrow at 6:00 a.m. eastern on "squawk box." [ male announcer ] how can power consumption in china, impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. >>> welcome back to squawk. happy monday. today in the "wall street journal" suggesting netflix could end up doomed with its success with children. netflix just for kids get more popular. companies like viacom get accurate. companies provide netflix with most of its content in a kids' focused section. the journal says at some point the suppliers will probably want to charge netflix more
taxes, job killers, to the rest of the economy, including obama care tax hikes and including fiscal cliff tax hikes. where's the largic of this position or is it just hypocritical sweetheart deal stuff? >> i don't agree it's a tax killer. the taxes are put into place that the sectors of health care benefit reform, insurers, hospital, medical device companies hoar going to see gain when you have 30 million americans going into the health care system that they also help keep the law sustainable. >> but, wait, i don't understand. we're talking about taxes. come back to the main point. the main point is why are these 18 democrats suddenly opposed to a job killing tax, particularly elizabeth warren, particularly al franken, who are two lefty liberals who love high taxes. is it because, a, they've seen the logic of supply side economics or, b, they're hypocrites because they're just trying to protect their own companies in their own states? >> they have the medical device lobby in their back yard, that's who they're listening to. if they don't want to do this tax, bits $30 billion over te
covering the economy and fiscal cliff negotiations. we will have it live for you when it happens after the top of the hour on "street signs." i think that's why the mark set stuck right now. we were up about 30 point. we lot of a little p. we are up 17 now. s&p 500 is up a half point. in terms of the nasdaq, we are up just about 7 point. steve grasso is with us. what does the market want it hear from the president at 2:00? >> they want to hear a deal is close to booeb beieing done. fund managers don't want to take a leg and step into the abyss of the fiscal cliff. >> absolutely. we heard a short term patch is not going to avoid us from another drown grade. if you are a fund manager, do you punt in december? i think not. you wait. >> does downgrade matter? >> you did see the collapse in the market because the market always is a good lead time for you. so leading indicator. . the best leading indicator is the s&p 500 so we have seen just sitting here in no man's land. >> it is as flat as my ekg. >> god for bid. >> yeah. >> normally, might well be a big topic. >> did you say anything? >>
in this country should of course we go over that fiscal cliff. what is that going to do to the economy and ability to create jobs next year? >> the last thing the economy needs right now is for a big tax hike on the middle class. the $2,200 tax increase for the typical family you alluded to, we calculate that would cause consumer spending to fall by $200 billion next year. that would cut the growth of consumption by 1.7 percentage points and shave 1.4 percentage points off gdp growth. there's a simple solution here which is just to extend middle class tax cuts which the senate has already done. >> we got good numbers this morning. i'm willing to take them at face value. better than a bid. not great. we want 400,000 jobs. do we still need to spend so much money on the payroll tax cut and extended unemployment gains given the fact that we got good news today? >> first and foremost, we need to extend middle class tax cuts. that should be our highest priority. the economy can still use support in the short-term. i think the more we do for the long-term to show that we're on a fiscally sustainable path
until our economy falls off the tax and fiscal cliff. just where do we stand on a deal coming out of washington, d.c.? cnbc correspondent joins us with all the details. >> reporter: as you know the white house's strategy since the election has been to break republican resistance on two issues. one is tax rates and one is an increase in the debt limit. he hasn't succeeded or budged off that attempt so far which is why john boehner came out in a news conference today and slammed the white house for not being willing to compromise. >> four days ago we offered a serious proposal based on testimony of president clinton's former chief of staff. since then there's been no counter offer from the white house. instead, reports indicate that the president has adopted a deliberate strategy to slow walk or economy right to the edge of the fiscal cliff. >> a few hours later you had a slight indication of flexibility from the administration. vice president joe biden was out. he reiterated those two nonnegotiable demands on the part of the administration but said the actual amount of that top rat
to be 33%. the winner, the fiscal cliff, 35%. what are people saying about the fiscal cliff? we have people write in, and i believe that's what we'll look at next. we'll look at the probability of a u.s. recession. that has come up. in part because of the fiscal cliff concerns. it was 19% back in march. a high of 36%. so we're halfway between the low and the high pretty much. this is a 13-month high for the probability of recession. now we want to show you what people are saying about the fiscal cliff, allowing the economy to go over the cliff would be extremely reckless, says donnelly. they're going out to try to help the unemployment rate. wall street doesn't believe it's going to happen. they do believe it will help lower mortgage rates and the unemployment rate and not a lot of help expected for the stock market. melissa? >> steve, thanks for that. that's interesting stuff there. >> nothing like getting your blood pressure up. liesman testing you live on tv. >> what do you think? wrong, wrong. brought back bad memories, huh, carl? 2013 housing market outlook this morning, according to t
.6% contraction in the economy because of manufacturers concerns about the fiscal cliff that's coming up. and the report also showed that if we go over the cliff, meaning if we just go over it in the first few days of next year, that we could have a 13% cumulative contraction in the gdp between now and 2015. and 6 million jobs lost. now, a lot of those will come from small and medium sized manufacturers who just aren't willing to take the risk, but i think you're talking to doug in a little bit and larger companies like caterpillar and doug is the incoming chair of the national association of manufacturers, companies like caterpillar rely on those supply chains. so they want to make sure that the small and medium sized manufacturers are just as healthy as the larger. >> jay, thank you. we appreciate your time this morning. >>> coming up, police arresting john mcafee. the details next. ...so as you can see, geico's customer satisfaction is at 97%. mmmm tasty. and cut! very good. people are always asking me how we make these geico adverts. so we're taking you behind the scenes. this coffee
are not just going to go over the fiscal cliff? we heard tim geithner on this program yesterday when steve asked him, look f you don't get what you want, do we go over the fiscal cliff? he said absolutely. >> he said he would do it! >> what happens when we wake up january nd, we go over the cliff, and the world doesn't end? >> that is so irresponsible. >> you have to be a long-term investor. long-term stocks have outperformed bonds. >> with all do respect, george, are you one of those come play september investors larry is referring to? >> i'd say we're opposite of that. we never take anything for granted, but we bet accordingac. bonds are trouble. a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in bonds. you have to be prepared for that. interest rates are going to go up. dividends are going to continue to increase. the economy in this country is strong. it's going to get stronger. >> even at 44% dividend tax? >> it's not going to go that high. >> if we go over the fiscal cliff, it does go that high. it goes to 44%. >> no, no. don't think the worst. >> less than a month, it goes there. >
let our economy go over the fiscal cliff if a deal on higher tax rates for the wealthy is not reached? we're checking it out. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] research suggests cell health plays a key role throughout our lives. one a day men's 50+ is a complete multivitamin designed for men's health concerns as we age. it has 7 antioxidants to support cell health. one a day men's 50+. it's easy to follow the progress you're making toward all your financial goals. a quick glance, and you can see if you're on track. when the conversation turns to knowing where you stand, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. >>> welcome back. this very public negotiation on the fiscal cliff still does not seem to be closing in on a deal. the white house out in campaign style events regularly, making multiple media appearances, kle including timothy geithner right here in 25 minutes. >> but would things be done faster if it was done privately? in his latest column, jeff goldfor a compares u.s. budget talks to merger proxy battles. jeff joins us to explain about that. plus, we have bob from jones day who
if the economy goes over the fiscal cliff. now joining me on krn, jim cash. good morning and thanks for joining us. >> good morning. thank you. >> tell us a little bit about the results of this survey which indicate that companies have been reacting to the fiscal cliff by pulling back on spending or hiring. why haven't we seen that show up in the jobs report? is there a concern that we might see more of a pullback into next year? >> i think that's exactly what this survey is saying. about 50% have already taken some action. i think companies right now are waiting to see what's going to happen and it really comes down to two major issues. if we can get this fiscal cliff issue resolved, then we are looking at a pretty optimismic outlook from our members. but if we don't get the fiscal cliff, almost 60% said they'll be looking at cutting jobs and/or layoffs. >> cfos are notoriously less sang win than ceos. it's not particularly surprising that this group is expressing some contingency plans. but on average, they expect the u.s. to add of a million jobs next year. so kind of a divide here between t
to the economy. we're going to have a fight on the fiscal cliff. another on the debt ceiling. it's destroying confident in the markets and what bothers me, larry, you know the subprime crisis hit like that. there was no warning. we could have another one like that. >> somebody has to control spending. i think the debt ceiling over a period of time is one way to do it. i'm sorry to you both. i have to get out of here. >> only roughly 800 billion apart. they can come together and solve it. >> i think the main tax -- >> for the good of the country. i'm probably not going to like the deal but that's probably what will happen. >> thank you so much. quick programming note. i will come to you life from our nation's capital tomorrow night as part of cnbc's special all day coverage. rise above, mission critical. now how do you like this scenario? the u.s. government using our tax money to build up an electric battery firm but after it fails the company sells out to a chinese outfit who takes advantage of our own taxpayer dollars. now producing for japan. there is something wrong with this picture. we'
our economy right to the edge of the fiscal cliff. >> former presidential candidate and vermont governor howard dean says bring it on. going over the fiscal cliff will actually help america. he's going to make his case, very bold statement there, to someone whose company will be decimated by the spending cuts to defense companies. you do not want to miss this confrontation. ricans are alwayso work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength of a global financial leader. the heart of a one-to-one relationship. together for your future. ♪ >>> pretty clear apple stock is having its worst week in more than two years. let's get to bertha coombs with the details. >> tough end of the week ear. it's apple's horrible, awful week. today's decline saw shares hit a real technical weak point, the so-called death cross. that's where the 50-day m
insurance. group's founder it is not the fiscal cliff that's the biggest threat tho the markets right now. it's the overwhelming amount of speculation. >> he says it's crowding out long-term investment and doing damage not just to the economy and the markets but to society as a whole. he joins us now. we're always pleased to welcome back into this cnbc exclusive to talk about it, mr. jack bogle. the founder of the vanguard group, author, all those good things out there. welcome back, my friend. >> thank you, bill. thank you very much. and hi, mandy. >> hi there. >> speculation. let's talk about that and the role it has played. you know, the s.e.c. would like and some of the portions of dodd frank would like to get rid of proprietary trading and some of that has gone away, but you still have the fast-moving trades that hit the streets these days. is that what you're talking about? the hyperfast trading that goes on? >> that's a big part of it, bill, but it's not all. when you think about our financial system and i think we talked a bit about this before. the role as the financial side of o
? is it geopolitical or more of a story about what's happening in economies around the world? >> merry fiscal cliff-mas to you. you're going to see more bouncing like a yo yo, on the fundamental story, the models we have pointing going into 1q, the reason, it sort of rhymes in the spirit of the season. you have non-opec demand growing, global demand slowing, it's not snowing, and down is where we're going. the next big data point is probably the iaea report in february. and if that implicates more progress toward an iranian bomb, there's significant risk to look to the upside. in the meantime, you have a lot of other issues beyond the fiscal cliff. debt ceiling issues, if not resolved in the negotiation looming. and relatively long stocks here in the u.s. perhaps the most interesting part, becky, is to look at the convergence between light and heavy grades here in north america. we have a lot of light oil. and we're actually potentially short of heavy oil. so seeing convergence within that downward trend means there could be a bid for heavier. >> you would guess that would certainly hurt demand. >>
in gold. i don't know why it would end. i didn't find -- look. maybe you think that we go to fiscal cliff and it's so deflationary that no one wants to own gold. you could argue that this is a return to the great recession. i don't know. in terms of slowdown in the economy and why inflation is dead. inflation would be dealt a mortal blow if there was inflation by going over the fiscal cliff. austerity does not breed inflation. >> do you believe that sandy is a convenient excuse here for these adp numbers? >> i think sandy was terrible. goldman upgrades waste management today. anyone who has ever been to the giant dumps that waste management has, it's where you dump -- dumping is an expensive thing. when you're a contractor and you have to clean up sandy of which there's immense damage, waste management gets a cut of everything. i think sandy is gigantic. the ripples continue to come. i think new york is going to be hurt very badly by sandy. >> let's move onto starbucks. starbucks today brewing more than coffee. world's largest coffee company announcing during investor day today it plans t
. we're going to talk about the fiscal cliff. if we go over it, will it really destroy the u.s. economy? we'll show you some stats to make you go -- hmm. we'll talk more about apple's slide, should microsoft's ceo steve ballmer get the boot if the surface fails. and we will introduce to you quite possibly the world's dumbest demolition crew. it involves a multi-million dollar bore chateau and really bad bulldozing. >> yikes. see you at 1:00, brian. thank you. >>> listen up wall street recruiters, a recent rash of college cheating scandals has shown academic dishonesty is unfortunately a very big problem on campus today. who are the worst offenders? tonight's premier of "faking the grade -- classroom cheaters," we'll tell you. they'll find out which students are most likely to cut corners in the battle to gain an edge. >> reporter: don mccabe and his canadian colleague collaborate on research. mccabe says in the u.s. business students cheat the most. engineering students are often near the top of the list. and so are communications and journalism students. women studied at one university
's going to allow us to avoid the fiscal cliff? and if that's true, we think that's not only good for the u.s. economy, we also think that's positive for the global economy. >> have you weighed in in washington? did the leaders know your view on things? >> yeah, i think you saw at the business round table that i participated in that group there was a lot of coverage of it the last day or two. the position we've taken in borrowing your by line, this is a time for legislation, not for vacation. and it is critical that we get this compromise done. it's not about declaring winners and losers, it's about finding a solution for the united states which is good for employees and is good for retirees. it's good for investment and takes care of the unemployed. that can be done. we've done this before. we believe that we need to all bring our pressure and our support to our elected officials to get that deal done before year end. >> do you think that there's any real commitment to cutting spending by the president? >> i believe that all the parties involved in this transaction, and as you pointed it's
everything from the consumer to the holiday season and the economy and the fiscal cliff. as we go to break, here's a look at five of the coolest tupperware party themes. the lawn chair party, the tupperritaville party, the bag lady bash. >> tupperrita ville party, that's up your alley. >> and the pms party, as in popcorn, mini tupperware and sodas. >> no walking dead party. >> i'm sure that's somewhere. just for your weekend planning. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. >>> okay. here we are for the holiday season in full swing. i've known this ceo for a long time. the pulse on the retail consumer worldwide, joining us for the squawk is rick goings, chairman, ceo of tupperware brands. okay, rick, i'm reading "the new york
washington. this is where we've camped out all night. there's been all this talk about the fiscal cliff. we know it is fact approaching. we know it is something that would threaten not only the united states economy, but the economies around the globe. if we go over that cliff, there will be steep cuts and spending and steep tax increases that would automatically kick in. what we're doing here today is talking to our elected officials, talking to people who are involved in these talks, trying to figure out what will happen, where we are and if there's any way to avoid that cliff, if there's a good way to come about with tax reform and a close look at what's been happening on the spending side, as well. we have a lineup of a lot of gets who are here. joining us this morning, early on we'll be joined by representative jeb henserling. he will give us on some of the insight on what is happening. we're talking to senators this morning. senator ron johnson will be joining us. and grove er nordquist. he is rite in the center of this base. a lot of people see him as a huge part of the problem. if y
stimulating the economy without government interference. i think the thing to do is go right over the fiscal cliff. you'll raise some taxes, yes, that's true, you'll cut defense and some human services. this is the only way we'll have a significant bite out of this deficit. i think the market is going to like this. they say no right now, but when they see that this government is taking on the deficit in a serious way i think they will like it >> you don't think going over the cliff is armageddon? >> this is just nonsense, absolutely not. this is a bipartisan deal that was made. now both parties are trying to welch on their commitments. i think that's a mistake. >> steve, ben bernanke said today if we do go over the fiscal cliff, even if it's for a short period of time, it's going to be very costly and they do not have the tools to basically dig us out of it. do you believe if we go over the fiscal cliff it won't be as easy as the governor is suggesting? >> we're in trouble anyway this quarter and the next quarter and putting on taxes of any kind would be the wrong thing to do. sometimes the
won't want to miss it. >>> still a stalemate over the fiscal cliff on capitol hill. house speaker baner making comments earlier. meanwhile, a new poll out today on the cliff, economy and our leaders in washington. john harwood live at the wlous with more on that, john, over to you. >> reporter: sue, we will have full details tonight after 6:30 p.m. but for now, we've got one early release question which the results will not come as a surprise to anybody on our network because the desire by the public for law makers in washington to make a deal is very strong. when we ask people, do you want both sides to compromise on their positions, even if that means cuts in social security and higher taxes, or do you want them to stick to their position, 65% of the american people say they want both parties to compromise only 28% say stick to your positions. that is very consistent with the desire on wall street. and it is on main street as well, to get something done. and as you mentioned, sue, there has not been much external signs of a deal. though we did have an exchange of offers and that
, as the fiscal cliff debate developments, there is limited up side for interest rates and it's hard to see stocks moving much higher. >> so let's suppose we get an agreement. that should increase confidence. does that mean the economy performs better next year than we expect and then what's the feed through from that? >> yeah, i think while we're now focused on a lot of the down side risks not only from the fiscal cliff but obviously also from the eurozone crisis, we may have overlooked some of these up side potential for next year. so if we get a favorable resolution for the fiscal cliff, i think we can see interest rates move up quite sharply. that would be because expectations for growth could be much higher, so if growth is around the 2% in the first half of the year, we could be haufing over the 3% range in the second half of the rear. that would mean higher interest rates and that could be a very poor result for top quality bonds. >> and when you're talk about interest rates, you're talking about market rates as opposed to fed rates, right? >> the treasury rate, baseline underwhich say corp
opposition to new revenues as the fiscal cliff clock ticks down. this is what he said earlier on "squawk box." listen up. >> raising tacks is always bad for the economy. that doesn't change. raising taxes is what politicians do instead of reforming government. the reason we haven't reformed entitlements, the reason we haven't reined in spending, politicians go we'll raise taxes and backfill. >> representative kevin yoder, a republican from kansas, sits on the house appropriations committee. a plum assignment especially for a freshman. he's one of a handful of republicans who did not sign the norquist taxpayer protection pledge. congressman yoder, welcome. why didn't you sign the pledge and are you happy you didn't? >> i didn't sign pledges. i don't believe our job is to make a pledge to a third party group. my pledge is to the third party district. as the debate wages on on how to get off the fiscal cliff. i'm not one to make a pledge to a third party group. how do we get through the situation, find the best result for american people. there's a lot of opinions out there. we have to listen t
the fiscal cliff and about further risks from eurozone financial crisis? go . >> we know the markets are driven on a minute by minute basis, but if we just step back from that, the chances that in two to three months from now, obviously we could briefly go over in january, i think that's unlikely, the chance that we'll really have the u.s. economy squeeze by 4%, 5% of gdp, i think it's incredibly unlikely. >> what are you assuming about the ongoing eurozone -- >> the eurozone, if we go through a series of ticks, we have had a lot of progress this year. you have to be clear about that. and not just with all the various government actions. look at wages in greece and now spain. wages in greece are down more than 25%. very painful, but we've heard about the pain already. what we haven't heard so much about is the competitiveness. >> enor husband costs with incredibly high unemployment rates. >> that i'm afraid is what's going on and that's extremely unpleasant. what i'm saying in terms of market action is we know about that, we're focused already on the unemployment, we're not focused o
, president obama and house speaker boehner spending a sunday together to talk about the fiscal cliff. no word on any progress and the president will be in detroit today to speak about the economy. joining us right now is cnbc's chief washington correspondent john harwood. john, you had a great column over the weekend in the in, times whether you took a look back at what happened in 1990 where things were set up for a grit debate but maybe things were easier at that point because you didn't have the 24-hour news cycle. you had other things that made it easier the last time around. what does that lead us to think this time around? >> well, there are ways in which it was more difficult, as you just alluded to, becky. but there are a lot of similarities, too. there are warnings that the economy is going to take a huge hit if a multi year budget deal was not enacted. you had a republican party led by a president who had made a no tax pledge and who was trying to figure out a way out of that. when he finally did that, that's when the negotiations took on a faster pace. and i do think here the fact
the state of kentucky. senator paul, welcome, as always. i want to ask you about the fiscal cliff, the state of play. there's revenues on the table. there's tax rate increases on the table. i don't know if there's spending on the table. what's your thinking prigt now? >> that it's a really, really bad idea to raise taxes. if you want your economy to grow, you should do the opposite. we have to cut taxes. that's how i'd fix the economy. leave more money in the private sector. the president is adamant about raising taxes and he's dead wrong. >> there are some people saying we need a deal to avoid a huge tax increase but year end that would throw us into recession. just a thought, would you compromise in terms of let's say a smaller tax rate increase -- let's say the top rate goes to 37% instead of 40%, maybe the threshold goads es to $500,000 $750,000 rather than $250,000? does that interest you? >> no. but what about means testing for entitlement. why don't we say the rich get less social security and they pay more for their medicare? it meets the president's animus that we must get more mone
, appreciate it very much. >> thanks. >>> with just 26 days until we fall off the tax and fiscal cliff, two dozen house republicans have apparently defected from the boehner plan and signed a bipartisan letter with democrats. people are now asking is there a fallback position for the gop? well, here now to tell us is house majority whip california republican kevin mccarthy, the number three man. mr. mccarthy, as always, thank you for coming back on the show. can i get your comment on this letter, two dozen republicans, they're talking about tax rate flexibility along with a bunch of democrats. what's your take, sir? >> well, remember what they're saying here. what they're saying is that they're going to put everything on to the table. what we've been talking about for so long is where the president has been awol, this is a spending issue that we have a real problem with. we agree that we'll provide revenue, but we do not want to hurt a pro growth economy here. so it's how you go about it. that's why we think the rates have to be frozen. the other thing we're look at, the president says he w
to avoid the fiscal cliff, carl. >> times a-wastin. with the deadline inching closer what needs to be done to reach an agreement? judd gregg is a former republican senator, governor of new hampshire and co-chair of the campaign to fix the debt as well as a cnbc contributor. i'm glad to say he's at post nine. good to have you back. >> great to be here, carl. >> is the conventional wisdom that the president has won this round correct and is that good if your goal is to get to a deal in the end? >> i think the president clearly has the microphone and he has the election behind him as the winner so he obviously has more cards i believe than the republicans have, but i think speaker boehner has acted very responsibly here, come forward with a very aggressive proposal. he said he's willing to raise revenues so he's moved that needle very considerably. and to me all that needs to be done to get this deal done is for the two of them to get in a room and ask the staff to go to lunch and they work it out, because the parameters of an agreement are pretty clear. >> the speaker has not brought up rate
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